Weighted Sales Pipeline Calculator
A probability-weighted sales pipeline applies a close probability to each opportunity value and adds the weighted estimates for a simple expected pipeline figure.
How to use this calculator
- Enter the value and expected close probability for each of three opportunities. Probabilities must be from 0% to 100%.
- Check the labels and units before applying the result to a real task.
- Change one input at a time when comparing scenarios.
Formula and method
Weighted pipeline = Σ(deal value × close probability)
- Weighted pipeline = Σ(deal value × close probability)
- Deal probabilities are subjective estimates unless calibrated to historical conversion data. Weighted value is not guaranteed revenue and does not include timing or margin.
Worked examples
Worked example
Deals of 5,000 at 50%, 12,000 at 25%, and 2,000 at 80%.
Weighted value = 2,500 + 3,000 + 1,600 = 7,100, compared with an unweighted total of 19,000.
Weighted value = 2,500 + 3,000 + 1,600 = 7,100, compared with an unweighted total of 19,000.
Understanding the result
A probability-weighted sales pipeline applies a close probability to each opportunity value and adds the weighted estimates for a simple expected pipeline figure.
Deal probabilities are subjective estimates unless calibrated to historical conversion data. Weighted value is not guaranteed revenue and does not include timing or margin.
Important notes
Deal probabilities are subjective estimates unless calibrated to historical conversion data. Weighted value is not guaranteed revenue and does not include timing or margin.
Displayed values are rounded for readability; retain appropriate precision when continuing a calculation.
Frequently asked questions
Why is weighted pipeline lower than total pipeline?
Each opportunity is scaled by its close probability. A deal with a 25% probability contributes one quarter of its value to this simple expectation.
How should close probabilities be selected?
Use a consistent stage definition and, where possible, actual historical conversion rates rather than changing percentages to produce a preferred forecast.
Does the result predict the closing date?
No. This version estimates value only; deal timing, pipeline aging and revenue recognition require additional inputs.
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This page provides a calculation tool plus explanatory information so you can understand what the result means and when the underlying method may not fit your situation.